New report says gas prices could reach $8.43 next year

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CALIFORNIA – Senate Minority Leader Brian W. Jones (R-San Diego) sent a letter to Governor Gavin Newsom, May 6, calling for urgent action to stop refinery closures. 

Jones cites a USC report predicting gas prices could reach $8.43 per gallon in 2026 due to refinery closures.

“If the Governor doesn’t act now, Californians will be blindsided by sticker shock at the pump and skyrocketing prices on everyday goods,” said Jones. 

Two closing refineries produce 20% of California’s in-state gas supply

The Phillips 66 refinery in Los Angeles is scheduled to shut down by the end of 2025. The Valero refinery in Benicia will close in April 2026. 

The refineries are closing due to a combination of factors, including the high cost of doing business in the state, evolving regulatory requirements, and uncertainty about future gasoline demand.

USC professor Michael Mische said these two facilities produce approximately 20% of California’s in-state gasoline supply. 

Prices could go as high as $8.43

Mische projects that gas prices could surge 75% by the end of 2026 from current levels because of the refinery closures.

His models estimate a jump to $6.43 per gallon by late 2025 following the Phillips 66 closure. Prices could go as high as $8.43 in 2026 after Valero shuts down.

He also notes that Chevron is terminating its headquarters in California in favor of Texas, and with the $4 billion write-off in assets, its two California refineries may be next.

Mische proposed actions including engaging Phillips 66 and Valero with a business proposition and postponing the 2035 gasoline vehicle ban to 2055.

He also recommends suspending CARB’s new Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which may raise gas prices by $0.47 per gallon.

Jones urges Newsom to work with fuel producers

In his letter, Jones urged Newsom to collaborate with fuel producers to prevent further closures and ensure energy stability.

“A few ideas worth exploring could include investment tax credits, and temporary or permanent relief from certain taxes and regulations,” said Jones.

RELATED: CA lawmaker launches committees to make food, childcare, housing and gas more affordable

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